Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing19/29, 245 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing14 CAR, 69 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving7 REC, 89 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing16/27, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing14 CAR, 32 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving5 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:04Samaje Perine 2 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)17–10
- Q36:26Harrison Butker 37 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q24:06Xavier Worthy 54 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–10
- Q13:53Cameron Dicker 50 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q16:16Ladd McConkey 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:16Ladd McConkey 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)KC 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 29% → 47% +18LAC 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q13:53Cameron Dicker 50 Yd Field GoalKC 0 – 10 LAC · LAC 48% → 57% +8LAC 48% → 57%+8 pts
- Q24:06Xavier Worthy 54 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 10 LAC · KC 35% → 58% +23KC 35% → 58%+23 pts
- Q36:26Harrison Butker 37 Yd Field GoalKC 10 – 10 LAC · KC 51% → 64% +12KC 51% → 64%+12 pts
- Q46:04Samaje Perine 2 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 17 – 10 LAC · KC 57% → 94% +37KC 57% → 94%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- KC -7.5
- ML KC -300 / LAC +250
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -5.5
- KC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- KC: Elo 69.2%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -259
- LAC +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 24.5 – 17.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1658 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +9 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +141 Elo | KC 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 65.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 72.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 19.318th of 32 |
| 13th of 3220.7 | Points allowed | 11.01st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.3 | Margin | +8.35th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.44 | Yards per play | 5.0720th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.67 | Yards allowed per play | 4.716th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 2–0 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.