Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing14/20, 130 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing17 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving5 REC, 51 YDS, 2 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing18/26, 84 YDS, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing10 CAR, 64 YDS
- Tommy TrembleReceiving3 REC, 23 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:02Cameron Dicker 42 Yd Field Goal26–3
- Q39:03Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field Goal23–3
- Q312:18Eddy Pineiro 38 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q22:01J.K. Dobbins 43 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)20–0
- Q24:16Quentin Johnston 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)13–0
- Q19:20Quentin Johnston 29 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker PAT failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:20Quentin Johnston 29 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker PAT failed)LAC 6 – 0 CAR · LAC 65% → 78% +13LAC 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q24:16Quentin Johnston 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 13 – 0 CAR · LAC 79% → 92% +13LAC 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q22:01J.K. Dobbins 43 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 20 – 0 CAR · LAC 92% → 98% +6LAC 92% → 98%+6 pts
- Q312:18Eddy Pineiro 38 Yd Field GoalLAC 20 – 3 CAR · CAR 2% → 3% +2CAR 2% → 3%+2 pts
- Q39:03Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field GoalLAC 23 – 3 CAR · LAC 97% → 99% +1LAC 97% → 99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML LAC -210 / CAR +175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 67.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -188
- CAR +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 21.5 – 17.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1320 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | 0 | LAC: Justin Herbert · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +124 Elo | LAC 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 64.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 65.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.4 | Points scored | 13.931st of 32 |
| 24th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 24.529th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.1 | Margin | −10.631st of 32 |
| 21st of 325.06 | Yards per play | 4.1132nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.54 | Yards allowed per play | 4.926th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.