Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing25/33, 257 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Zamir WhiteRushing13 CAR, 44 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving3 REC, 61 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing17/26, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing10 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving5 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:40Ladd McConkey 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)10–22
- Q410:30Daniel Carlson 32 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q414:55J.K. Dobbins 12 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–16
- Q39:08Cameron Dicker 24 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q20:26Cameron Dicker 25 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q10:45Alexander Mattison 31 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–3
- Q14:22Cameron Dicker 53 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:45Alexander Mattison 31 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 3 LAC · LV 35% → 55% +20LV 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q20:26Cameron Dicker 25 Yd Field GoalLV 7 – 6 LAC · LAC 41% → 52% +10LAC 41% → 52%+10 pts
- Q39:08Cameron Dicker 24 Yd Field GoalLV 7 – 9 LAC · LAC 51% → 62% +12LAC 51% → 62%+12 pts
- Q414:55J.K. Dobbins 12 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 7 – 16 LAC · LAC 64% → 89% +26LAC 64% → 89%+26 pts
- Q410:30Daniel Carlson 32 Yd Field GoalLV 10 – 16 LAC · LV 8% → 16% +9LV 8% → 16%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3
- ML LV +135 / LAC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -2.5
- LAC 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 40.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -135
- LV +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 18.8 – 21.8 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +50 | +9 | LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +67 Elo | LV 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 57.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3219.5 | Points scored | 20.421st of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.5 | Points allowed | 23.424th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −3.123rd of 32 |
| 27th of 324.87 | Yards per play | 5.0621st of 32 |
| 12th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5427th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 2–730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LV 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.