Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Jarrett StidhamPassing20/34, 272 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing9 CAR, 32 YDS, 1 TD
- Brandon JohnsonReceiving4 REC, 88 YDS
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing20/31, 244 YDS, 2 TD
- Zamir WhiteRushing25 CAR, 112 YDS
- Tre TuckerReceiving5 REC, 79 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:20Daniel Carlson 21 Yd Field Goal14–27
- Q410:09Javonte Williams 2 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)14–24
- Q414:53Jakobi Meyers 33 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–24
- Q20:07Davante Adams 3 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–17
- Q27:09Daniel Carlson 49 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q210:34Jerry Jeudy 24 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Wil Lutz Kick)7–7
- Q11:44Jakobi Meyers 5 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:44Jakobi Meyers 5 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)DEN 0 – 7 LV · LV 61% → 78% +17LV 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q210:34Jerry Jeudy 24 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 7 LV · DEN 21% → 40% +18DEN 21% → 40%+18 pts
- Q27:09Daniel Carlson 49 Yd Field GoalDEN 7 – 10 LV · LV 60% → 69% +9LV 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q20:07Davante Adams 3 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)DEN 7 – 17 LV · LV 69% → 87% +18LV 69% → 87%+18 pts
- Q414:53Jakobi Meyers 33 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)DEN 7 – 24 LV · LV 92% → 99% +7LV 92% → 99%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raiders 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -3.5
- LV 62%
- Fair odds
- LV -168
- DEN +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 19.3 – 23.0 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −74 | +17 | DEN: Jarrett Stidham, usually Russell Wilson · LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +82 Elo | LV 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 62.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 19.125th of 32 |
| 26th of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 19.89th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−2.7 | Margin | −0.817th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.00 | Yards per play | 4.8327th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.84 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1813th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 16th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 0–1 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.