Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing12/18, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing15 CAR, 44 YDS
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving2 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Justin FieldsPassing25/32, 245 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Najee HarrisRushing18 CAR, 70 YDS
- Calvin Austin IIIReceiving4 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:02Calvin Austin III 55 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)10–20
- Q414:14Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q39:05Chris Boswell 38 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q23:13Cameron Dicker 28 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q210:17Justin Fields 5 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)7–7
- Q12:46Quentin Johnston 27 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:46Quentin Johnston 27 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 7 – 0 PIT · LAC 43% → 62% +19LAC 43% → 62%+19 pts
- Q210:17Justin Fields 5 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)LAC 7 – 7 PIT · PIT 35% → 56% +21PIT 35% → 56%+21 pts
- Q39:05Chris Boswell 38 Yd Field GoalLAC 10 – 10 PIT · PIT 43% → 55% +12PIT 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q414:14Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field GoalLAC 10 – 13 PIT · PIT 54% → 69% +15PIT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q47:02Calvin Austin III 55 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)LAC 10 – 20 PIT · PIT 73% → 97% +24PIT 73% → 97%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -2.5
- ML LAC +125 / PIT -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -5
- PIT 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 67.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -138
- LAC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 16.5 – 19.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 35.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +30 | LAC: Justin Herbert · PIT: Justin Fields, usually Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +126 Elo | PIT 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 64.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.4 | Points scored | 17.928th of 32 |
| 24th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 19.16th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.1 | Margin | −1.221st of 32 |
| 21st of 325.06 | Yards per play | 5.0322nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4222nd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.