Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Justin FieldsPassing13/20, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing17 CAR, 69 YDS
- Pat FreiermuthReceiving4 REC, 39 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing20/35, 246 YDS, 2 INT
- Bo NixRushing4 CAR, 25 YDS
- Josh ReynoldsReceiving4 REC, 93 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:54Wil Lutz 29 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q410:42Wil Lutz 35 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q34:16Chris Boswell 53 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 22 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q11:56Darnell Washington 5 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:56Darnell Washington 5 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 0 DEN · PIT 67% → 82% +16PIT 67% → 82%+16 pts
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 22 Yd Field GoalPIT 10 – 0 DEN · PIT 83% → 89% +6PIT 83% → 89%+6 pts
- Q34:16Chris Boswell 53 Yd Field GoalPIT 13 – 0 DEN · PIT 92% → 96% +4PIT 92% → 96%+4 pts
- Q410:42Wil Lutz 35 Yd Field GoalPIT 13 – 3 DEN · DEN 2% → 5% +3DEN 2% → 5%+3 pts
- Q41:54Wil Lutz 29 Yd Field GoalPIT 13 – 6 DEN · DEN <1% → <1% +1DEN <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Steelers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -6
- PIT 70%
- Fair odds
- PIT -218
- DEN +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 23.7 – 18.1 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +30 | −82 | PIT: Justin Fields, usually Kenny Pickett · DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +149 Elo | PIT 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 68.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.9 | Points scored | 21.019th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 24.327th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.2 | Margin | −3.325th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.03 | Yards per play | 4.9925th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8230th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.