Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing26/42, 138 YDS, 2 INT
- Bo NixRushing5 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh ReynoldsReceiving5 REC, 45 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing18/25, 171 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing20 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler LockettReceiving6 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:09Bo Nix 4 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)20–26
- Q414:54Zach Charbonnet 30 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)13–26
- Q34:09Jason Myers 28 Yd Field Goal13–19
- Q310:44Kenneth Walker III 23 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)13–16
- Q20:02Wil Lutz 45 Yd Field Goal13–9
- Q24:24Zach Allen Safety10–9
- Q25:55Geno Smith 34 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)8–9
- Q28:45Wil Lutz 30 Yd Field Goal8–3
- Q211:22Team Safety5–3
- Q12:41Jason Myers 50 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q112:36Wil Lutz 35 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:55Geno Smith 34 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DEN 8 – 9 SEA · SEA 48% → 67% +19SEA 48% → 67%+19 pts
- Q20:02Wil Lutz 45 Yd Field GoalDEN 13 – 9 SEA · DEN 41% → 51% +11DEN 41% → 51%+11 pts
- Q310:44Kenneth Walker III 23 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)DEN 13 – 16 SEA · SEA 47% → 72% +26SEA 47% → 72%+26 pts
- Q34:09Jason Myers 28 Yd Field GoalDEN 13 – 19 SEA · SEA 72% → 82% +10SEA 72% → 82%+10 pts
- Q414:54Zach Charbonnet 30 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)DEN 13 – 26 SEA · SEA 84% → 97% +13SEA 84% → 97%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -5
- SEA 67%
- Fair odds
- SEA -207
- DEN +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 19.6 – 24.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −79 | +7 | DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +125 Elo | SEA 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.0 | Points scored | 21.417th of 32 |
| 27th of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 23.625th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−3.3 | Margin | −2.222nd of 32 |
| 25th of 324.99 | Yards per play | 5.5211th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.82 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5025th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.