Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing16/28, 189 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing17 CAR, 78 YDS
- Tyler LockettReceiving2 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing22/30, 262 YDS, 1 TD
- James ConnerRushing27 CAR, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael WilsonReceiving6 REC, 95 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:54Tyler Lockett 34 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Tyler Lockett for Two-Point Conversion)21–20
- Q49:48Trey McBride 8 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)13–20
- Q310:33James Conner 29 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)13–13
- Q20:00Jason Myers 29 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q21:57Matt Prater 34 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q27:06Will Dissly 19 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)10–3
- Q211:08Matt Prater 23 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q15:05Jason Myers 33 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:06Will Dissly 19 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 10 – 3 ARI · SEA 53% → 74% +21SEA 53% → 74%+21 pts
- Q20:00Jason Myers 29 Yd Field GoalSEA 13 – 6 ARI · SEA 67% → 76% +9SEA 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q310:33James Conner 29 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)SEA 13 – 13 ARI · ARI 23% → 47% +24ARI 23% → 47%+24 pts
- Q49:48Trey McBride 8 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)SEA 13 – 20 ARI · ARI 48% → 85% +37ARI 48% → 85%+37 pts
- Q41:54Tyler Lockett 34 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Tyler Lockett for Two-Point Conversion)SEA 21 – 20 ARI · SEA <1% → 65% +64SEA <1% → 65%+64 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -1.5
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- ARI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 23.4 – 22.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +2 | SEA: Geno Smith · ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +37 Elo | SEA 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 19.424th of 32 |
| 24th of 3223.9 | Points allowed | 27.131st of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.4 | Margin | −7.829th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.48 | Yards per play | 5.0522nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6828th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.