Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing19/30, 225 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler AllgeierRushing18 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving6 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Andy DaltonPassing26/38, 221 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing18 CAR, 92 YDS
- Diontae JohnsonReceiving6 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:11Younghoe Koo 35 Yd Field Goal38–20
- Q45:38Tyler Allgeier 2 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)35–20
- Q30:07Younghoe Koo 31 Yd Field Goal28–20
- Q34:51Eddy Pineiro 40 Yd Field Goal25–20
- Q310:04Younghoe Koo 21 Yd Field Goal25–17
- Q20:07Xavier Legette 7 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)22–17
- Q21:42Drake London 3 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)22–10
- Q26:03Bijan Robinson 7 Yd Run (Tyler Allgeier Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–10
- Q28:48Eddy Pineiro 24 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q10:38Bijan Robinson 5 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–7
- Q15:56Diontae Johnson 10 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:56Diontae Johnson 10 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)ATL 0 – 7 CAR · CAR 31% → 50% +18CAR 31% → 50%+18 pts
- Q10:38Bijan Robinson 5 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 7 CAR · ATL 48% → 68% +20ATL 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q26:03Bijan Robinson 7 Yd Run (Tyler Allgeier Run for Two-Point Conversion)ATL 15 – 10 CAR · ATL 56% → 79% +23ATL 56% → 79%+23 pts
- Q21:42Drake London 3 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 22 – 10 CAR · ATL 79% → 92% +13ATL 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q20:07Xavier Legette 7 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)ATL 22 – 17 CAR · CAR 8% → 21% +13CAR 8% → 21%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -6.5
- ML ATL -270 / CAR +220
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -5.5
- ATL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 69.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -233
- CAR +233 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 26.0 – 19.5 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1306 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +38 | +21 | ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder · CAR: Andy Dalton, usually Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +140 Elo | ATL 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 67.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 16.629th of 32 |
| 17th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 33.032nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −16.432nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326.04 | Yards per play | 4.8723rd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.13 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8527th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.