Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Andy DaltonPassing26/37, 319 YDS, 3 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing21 CAR, 114 YDS
- Diontae JohnsonReceiving8 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing18/28, 214 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Zamir WhiteRushing10 CAR, 34 YDS
- Tre TuckerReceiving7 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:56Tre Tucker 8 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)36–22
- Q44:47Eddy Pineiro 26 Yd Field Goal36–15
- Q410:56Jakobi Meyers 13 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Gardner Minshew Pass to Jakobi Meyers for Two-Point Conversion)33–15
- Q413:33Miles Sanders 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–7
- Q34:46Eddy Pineiro 35 Yd Field Goal27–7
- Q39:59Eddy Pineiro 43 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q20:28Adam Thielen 31 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)21–7
- Q29:28Diontae Johnson 5 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–7
- Q10:24Alexander Mattison 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q110:13Chuba Hubbard 6 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:13Chuba Hubbard 6 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 7 – 0 LV · CAR 31% → 48% +17CAR 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q10:24Alexander Mattison 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)CAR 7 – 7 LV · LV 48% → 68% +20LV 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q29:28Diontae Johnson 5 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 14 – 7 LV · CAR 33% → 55% +21CAR 33% → 55%+21 pts
- Q20:28Adam Thielen 31 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 21 – 7 LV · CAR 60% → 81% +21CAR 60% → 81%+21 pts
- Q39:59Eddy Pineiro 43 Yd Field GoalCAR 24 – 7 LV · CAR 85% → 91% +6CAR 85% → 91%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raiders 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LV -5.5
- ML CAR +210 / LV -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -10.5
- LV 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.2 pts
- LV: Elo 82.1%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- LV -234
- CAR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 17.5 – 23.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1295 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +48 | CAR: Andy Dalton, usually Bryce Young · LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +265 Elo | LV 82.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 78.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LV 70.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3213.9 | Points scored | 19.523rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3224.5 | Points allowed | 19.59th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.11 | Yards per play | 4.8727th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1712th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–9 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.