Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing30/38, 276 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Zamir WhiteRushing9 CAR, 24 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving9 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing21/34, 247 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing18 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving7 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:27Daniel Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal26–23
- Q43:54Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)23–23
- Q49:21Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal16–23
- Q412:11Derrick Henry 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)13–23
- Q32:36Alexander Mattison 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)13–16
- Q311:42Zay Flowers 8 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)6–16
- Q20:03Justin Tucker 32 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q21:37Daniel Carlson 51 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q26:00Justin Tucker 42 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q29:19Daniel Carlson 53 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:28Justin Tucker 48 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:42Zay Flowers 8 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)LV 6 – 16 BAL · BAL 78% → 92% +14BAL 78% → 92%+14 pts
- Q32:36Alexander Mattison 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 13 – 16 BAL · LV 6% → 23% +17LV 6% → 23%+17 pts
- Q412:11Derrick Henry 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)LV 13 – 23 BAL · BAL 77% → 96% +19BAL 77% → 96%+19 pts
- Q43:54Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 23 – 23 BAL · LV 3% → 43% +40LV 3% → 43%+40 pts
- Q40:27Daniel Carlson 38 Yd Field GoalLV 26 – 23 BAL · LV 47% → 98% +51LV 47% → 98%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -8.5
- ML LV +320 / BAL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -6
- BAL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 70.7%, market 77.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -328
- LV +328 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 17.0 – 25.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +50 | +6 | LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +153 Elo | BAL 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 68.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 76.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3219.5 | Points scored | 28.44th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.5 | Points allowed | 16.51st of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +11.91st of 32 |
| 27th of 324.87 | Yards per play | 5.854th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 4.623rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 26th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.