Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Andy DaltonPassing18/28, 136 YDS, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing13 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen CokerReceiving4 REC, 68 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing20/29, 304 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing21 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving5 REC, 105 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:23Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–36
- Q32:10Eddy Pineiro 27 Yd Field Goal10–30
- Q36:25Cairo Santos 33 Yd Field Goal7–30
- Q20:24DJ Moore 30 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos PAT failed)7–27
- Q22:14D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)7–21
- Q210:44Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)7–14
- Q15:44DJ Moore 34 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)7–7
- Q18:54Chuba Hubbard 38 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:54Chuba Hubbard 38 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 7 – 0 CHI · CAR 36% → 54% +18CAR 36% → 54%+18 pts
- Q15:44DJ Moore 34 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CAR 7 – 7 CHI · CHI 45% → 63% +19CHI 45% → 63%+19 pts
- Q210:44Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)CAR 7 – 14 CHI · CHI 62% → 80% +18CHI 62% → 80%+18 pts
- Q22:14D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)CAR 7 – 21 CHI · CHI 81% → 93% +12CHI 81% → 93%+12 pts
- Q20:24DJ Moore 30 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos PAT failed)CAR 7 – 27 CHI · CHI 93% → 98% +5CHI 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML CAR +170 / CHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5
- CHI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- CHI: Elo 67.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -182
- CAR +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 18.0 – 21.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1331 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +28 | −62 | CAR: Andy Dalton, usually Bryce Young · CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +129 Elo | CHI 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 66.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 64.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 19.321st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3232.3 | Points allowed | 18.88th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−14.0 | Margin | +0.516th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.83 | Yards per play | 3.9431st of 32 |
| 26th of 325.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0511th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.