Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Will LevisPassing19/32, 127 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Tony PollardRushing16 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- Calvin RidleyReceiving3 REC, 50 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing14/29, 93 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftRushing10 CAR, 30 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving5 REC, 36 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:35Tyrique Stevenson 43 Yd Interception Return (Caleb Williams Pass to D'Andre Swift for Two-Point Conversion)17–24
- Q49:52Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q414:47Cairo Santos 50 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q39:07Jonathan Owens 21 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Cairo Santos Kick)17–10
- Q20:27Cairo Santos 24 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q23:44Chig Okonkwo 17 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)17–0
- Q214:06Nick Folk 40 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q10:41Tony Pollard 26 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:41Tony Pollard 26 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 7 – 0 CHI · TEN 49% → 69% +19TEN 49% → 69%+19 pts
- Q23:44Chig Okonkwo 17 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 17 – 0 CHI · TEN 80% → 92% +13TEN 80% → 92%+13 pts
- Q39:07Jonathan Owens 21 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Cairo Santos Kick)TEN 17 – 10 CHI · CHI 8% → 25% +16CHI 8% → 25%+16 pts
- Q49:52Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field GoalTEN 17 – 16 CHI · CHI 27% → 44% +17CHI 27% → 44%+17 pts
- Q47:35Tyrique Stevenson 43 Yd Interception Return (Caleb Williams Pass to D'Andre Swift for Two-Point Conversion)TEN 17 – 24 CHI · CHI 43% → 89% +46CHI 43% → 89%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bears 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 52%
- Fair odds
- CHI -102
- TEN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 21.0 – 21.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +16 | −64 | TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill · CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +16 Elo | CHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3217.9 | Points scored | 21.218th of 32 |
| 16th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 22.320th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−3.6 | Margin | −1.119th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.90 | Yards per play | 5.0124th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3218th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–7 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.