Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing29/43, 280 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 57 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving6 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing17/26, 168 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing19 CAR, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving7 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:55Evan Engram 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)20–28
- Q312:45DeAndre Hopkins 6 Yd pass from Ryan Tannehill (Nick Folk Kick)13–28
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q23:03Tyjae Spears 3 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)10–21
- Q28:27Derrick Henry 18 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)10–14
- Q212:24Calvin Ridley 59 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)10–7
- Q15:57Tyjae Spears 28 Yd pass from Ryan Tannehill (Nick Folk Kick)3–7
- Q19:45Brandon McManus 44 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:57Tyjae Spears 28 Yd pass from Ryan Tannehill (Nick Folk Kick)JAX 3 – 7 TEN · TEN 30% → 49% +18TEN 30% → 49%+18 pts
- Q212:24Calvin Ridley 59 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 10 – 7 TEN · JAX 49% → 69% +20JAX 49% → 69%+20 pts
- Q28:27Derrick Henry 18 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)JAX 10 – 14 TEN · TEN 31% → 52% +21TEN 31% → 52%+21 pts
- Q23:03Tyjae Spears 3 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)JAX 10 – 21 TEN · TEN 54% → 75% +22TEN 54% → 75%+22 pts
- Q312:45DeAndre Hopkins 6 Yd pass from Ryan Tannehill (Nick Folk Kick)JAX 13 – 28 TEN · TEN 70% → 88% +18TEN 70% → 88%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -4.5
- JAX 66%
- Fair odds
- JAX -171
- TEN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 23.0 – 19.2 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | −9 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · TEN: Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +117 Elo | JAX 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 63.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.3 | Points scored | 17.328th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 21.716th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −4.426th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.16 | Yards per play | 4.8426th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1813th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 4th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
JAX 1–0 TEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.