Chicago Bears at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing23/37, 174 YDS, 2 INT
- Caleb WilliamsRushing5 CAR, 44 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving6 REC, 53 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing23/36, 260 YDS, 1 TD
- Cam AkersRushing7 CAR, 32 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving8 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:51Cairo Santos 54 Yd Field Goal13–19
- Q413:39Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal10–19
- Q20:01Ka'imi Fairbairn 59 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q20:32Khalil Herbert 2 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)10–13
- Q29:55Ka'imi Fairbairn 47 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q214:55Nico Collins 28 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)3–10
- Q13:51Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:20Ka'imi Fairbairn 56 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:51Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field GoalCHI 3 – 3 HOU · CHI 24% → 31% +7CHI 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q214:55Nico Collins 28 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)CHI 3 – 10 HOU · HOU 68% → 83% +16HOU 68% → 83%+16 pts
- Q20:32Khalil Herbert 2 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 10 – 13 HOU · CHI 10% → 26% +16CHI 10% → 26%+16 pts
- Q20:01Ka'imi Fairbairn 59 Yd Field GoalCHI 10 – 16 HOU · HOU 74% → 82% +8HOU 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q413:39Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field GoalCHI 10 – 19 HOU · HOU 85% → 93% +7HOU 85% → 93%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML CHI +225 / HOU -275
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6
- HOU 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -238
- CHI +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 19.5 – 26.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −67 | +12 | CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +146 Elo | HOU 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 69.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.2 | Points scored | 22.213th of 32 |
| 20th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 20.811th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +1.412th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.01 | Yards per play | 5.3713th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2115th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.