Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing24/32, 234 YDS, 2 TD
- Joe MixonRushing30 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving6 REC, 117 YDS
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing9/19, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Anthony Richardson Sr.Rushing6 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving3 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:14Anthony Richardson 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)29–27
- Q44:42Stefon Diggs 2 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)29–20
- Q412:12Ashton Dulin 54 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Spencer Shrader Kick)22–20
- Q413:41Joe Mixon 3 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)22–13
- Q35:40Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)15–13
- Q310:55Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal15–7
- Q211:31Stefon Diggs 9 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–7
- Q11:37Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q15:12Alec Pierce 60 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Spencer Shrader Kick)3–7
- Q16:44Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:40Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)HOU 15 – 13 IND · IND 16% → 37% +20IND 16% → 37%+20 pts
- Q413:41Joe Mixon 3 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 22 – 13 IND · HOU 64% → 90% +26HOU 64% → 90%+26 pts
- Q412:12Ashton Dulin 54 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Spencer Shrader Kick)HOU 22 – 20 IND · IND 9% → 35% +27IND 9% → 35%+27 pts
- Q44:42Stefon Diggs 2 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 29 – 20 IND · HOU 69% → 98% +29HOU 69% → 98%+29 pts
- Q42:14Anthony Richardson 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)HOU 29 – 27 IND · IND <1% → 24% +24IND <1% → 24%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -139
- IND +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 23.8 – 21.5 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | −22 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +72 Elo | HOU 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 23.310th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 24.428th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −1.119th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 5.2315th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2316th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.