Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing20/29, 224 YDS, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing19 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Tutu AtwellReceiving4 REC, 82 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing17/23, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing16 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Andre SwiftReceiving7 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:47Joshua Karty 52 Yd Field Goal18–24
- Q412:26D'Andre Swift 36 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)15–24
- Q414:55Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–17
- Q32:37DJ Moore 9 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)9–17
- Q38:50Joshua Karty 25 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q20:09Cairo Santos 40 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q25:42Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)6–7
- Q213:05Joshua Karty 37 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q14:01Joshua Karty 46 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:42Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)LAR 6 – 7 CHI · CHI 38% → 60% +22CHI 38% → 60%+22 pts
- Q38:50Joshua Karty 25 Yd Field GoalLAR 9 – 10 CHI · LAR 29% → 40% +11LAR 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q32:37DJ Moore 9 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)LAR 9 – 17 CHI · CHI 59% → 85% +26CHI 59% → 85%+26 pts
- Q414:55Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LAR 15 – 17 CHI · LAR 13% → 36% +23LAR 13% → 36%+23 pts
- Q412:26D'Andre Swift 36 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)LAR 15 – 24 CHI · CHI 65% → 91% +26CHI 65% → 91%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML LAR +140 / CHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -1.5
- CHI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- CHI: Elo 45.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHI -143
- LAR +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 18.5 – 22.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | −61 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +32 Elo | LAR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 53.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 58.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 17.722nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3230.3 | Points allowed | 19.010th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−11.3 | Margin | −1.317th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.13 | Yards per play | 3.6832nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.79 | Yards allowed per play | 4.8911th of 32 |
| 24th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.