Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing19/27, 216 YDS
- Blake CorumRushing8 CAR, 28 YDS
- Demarcus RobinsonReceiving2 REC, 50 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing17/21, 266 YDS, 3 TD
- James ConnerRushing21 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- Marvin Harrison Jr.Receiving4 REC, 130 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:02Trey McBride 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Matt Prater Kick)10–41
- Q30:41Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)10–34
- Q33:27Matt Prater 57 Yd Field Goal3–34
- Q310:33James Conner 5 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)3–31
- Q25:09Matt Prater 48 Yd Field Goal3–24
- Q29:38Joshua Karty 29 Yd Field Goal3–21
- Q213:29Elijah Higgins 18 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)0–21
- Q18:47Marvin Harrison Jr. 60 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)0–14
- Q111:03Marvin Harrison Jr. 23 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:03Marvin Harrison Jr. 23 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)LAR 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 50% → 67% +18ARI 50% → 67%+18 pts
- Q18:47Marvin Harrison Jr. 60 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)LAR 0 – 14 ARI · ARI 67% → 82% +15ARI 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q213:29Elijah Higgins 18 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)LAR 0 – 21 ARI · ARI 85% → 94% +9ARI 85% → 94%+9 pts
- Q29:38Joshua Karty 29 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 21 ARI · LAR 5% → 8% +3LAR 5% → 8%+3 pts
- Q25:09Matt Prater 48 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 24 ARI · ARI 93% → 96% +3ARI 93% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -1.5
- ML LAR -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -2
- LAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- LAR: Elo 56.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAR -102
- ARI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 23.0 – 24.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +13 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +46 Elo | LAR 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 50.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 19.424th of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.2 | Points allowed | 26.831st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+1.6 | Margin | −7.428th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.1618th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7029th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAR 2–0 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.