Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing21/31, 162 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyler MurrayRushing5 CAR, 57 YDS
- Greg DortchReceiving6 REC, 47 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing18/23, 232 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing19 CAR, 71 YDS
- Keon ColemanReceiving4 REC, 51 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Tyler Bass 39 Yd Field Goal28–34
- Q48:31DeeJay Dallas 96 Yd Kickoff Return (James Conner Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
- Q48:44Josh Allen 6 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)20–31
- Q413:32Matt Prater 31 Yd Field Goal20–24
- Q32:37Khalil Shakir 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)17–24
- Q39:51Mack Hollins 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)17–17
- Q20:19Josh Allen 7 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)17–10
- Q22:40James Conner 3 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)17–3
- Q29:47Tyler Bass 37 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q214:57Matt Prater 29 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q17:47Michael Wilson 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:40James Conner 3 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 17 – 3 BUF · ARI 57% → 78% +21ARI 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q20:19Josh Allen 7 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)ARI 17 – 10 BUF · BUF 20% → 42% +21BUF 20% → 42%+21 pts
- Q39:51Mack Hollins 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)ARI 17 – 17 BUF · BUF 38% → 64% +27BUF 38% → 64%+27 pts
- Q32:37Khalil Shakir 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)ARI 17 – 24 BUF · BUF 62% → 87% +25BUF 62% → 87%+25 pts
- Q48:31DeeJay Dallas 96 Yd Kickoff Return (James Conner Run for Two-Point Conversion)ARI 28 – 31 BUF · ARI 2% → 24% +22ARI 2% → 24%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -7.5
- BUF 75%
- Fair odds
- BUF -252
- ARI +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 19.4 – 26.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | — | ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +188 Elo | BUF 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 71.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.4 | Points scored | 26.56th of 32 |
| 31st of 3226.8 | Points allowed | 18.34th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.4 | Margin | +8.24th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.16 | Yards per play | 5.715th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.70 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1411th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.