Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing34/49, 317 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing18 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- Cooper KuppReceiving14 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing18/28, 217 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- David MontgomeryRushing17 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving5 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT5:19David Montgomery 1 Yd Run20–26
- Q40:17Jake Bates 32 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q44:30Cooper Kupp 9 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)20–17
- Q412:32Joshua Karty 26 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q33:33Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)10–17
- Q310:29Jameson Williams 52 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)3–17
- Q21:57Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)3–10
- Q212:17Jake Bates 25 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q14:50Joshua Karty 41 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:57Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)LAR 3 – 10 DET · DET 57% → 78% +21DET 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q310:29Jameson Williams 52 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)LAR 3 – 17 DET · DET 80% → 93% +14DET 80% → 93%+14 pts
- Q44:30Cooper Kupp 9 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 20 – 17 DET · LAR 16% → 73% +57LAR 16% → 73%+57 pts
- Q40:17Jake Bates 32 Yd Field GoalLAR 20 – 20 DET · DET <1% → 51% +50DET <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT5:19David Montgomery 1 Yd RunLAR 20 – 26 DET · DET 53% → 91% +38DET 53% → 91%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 60%
- Fair odds
- DET -147
- LAR +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 22.3 – 25.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | — | LAR: Matthew Stafford · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +74 Elo | DET 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 27.15th of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.2 | Points allowed | 23.223rd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+1.6 | Margin | +3.98th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.903rd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5126th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAR 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.