Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing33/52, 363 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Roschon JohnsonRushing8 CAR, 30 YDS
- Rome OdunzeReceiving6 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing10/20, 167 YDS, 2 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing23 CAR, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving1 REC, 44 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:01Cole Kmet 6 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)16–21
- Q45:22Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)9–21
- Q48:21Rome Odunze 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–14
- Q30:21Trey Sermon 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)3–14
- Q312:51Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q28:19Jonathan Taylor 29 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:19Jonathan Taylor 29 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)CHI 0 – 7 IND · IND 55% → 75% +20IND 55% → 75%+20 pts
- Q312:51Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field GoalCHI 3 – 7 IND · CHI 23% → 32% +9CHI 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q30:21Trey Sermon 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)CHI 3 – 14 IND · IND 72% → 93% +21IND 72% → 93%+21 pts
- Q48:21Rome Odunze 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CHI 9 – 14 IND · CHI 3% → 18% +16CHI 3% → 18%+16 pts
- Q45:22Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)CHI 9 – 21 IND · IND 86% → >99% +13IND 86% → >99%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML CHI +120 / IND -140
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -0.5
- IND 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- IND: Elo 52.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -127
- CHI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 20.5 – 23.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −70 | −16 | CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +14 Elo | IND 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 55.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.2 | Points scored | 23.310th of 32 |
| 20th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 24.428th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −1.119th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.01 | Yards per play | 5.2315th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2316th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 4–524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.