Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing17/34, 204 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing12 CAR, 103 YDS
- Alec PierceReceiving5 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Malik WillisPassing12/14, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing32 CAR, 151 YDS
- Romeo DoubsReceiving3 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:47Alec Pierce 4 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)10–16
- Q410:50Brayden Narveson 34 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q34:32Matt Gay 34 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q38:25Brayden Narveson 42 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q13:18Dontayvion Wicks 14 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–10
- Q110:30Brayden Narveson 46 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:30Brayden Narveson 46 Yd Field GoalIND 0 – 3 GB · GB 43% → 51% +8GB 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q13:18Dontayvion Wicks 14 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Narveson Kick)IND 0 – 10 GB · GB 52% → 71% +19GB 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q38:25Brayden Narveson 42 Yd Field GoalIND 0 – 13 GB · GB 82% → 89% +7GB 82% → 89%+7 pts
- Q34:32Matt Gay 34 Yd Field GoalIND 3 – 13 GB · IND 9% → 16% +7IND 9% → 16%+7 pts
- Q410:50Brayden Narveson 34 Yd Field GoalIND 3 – 16 GB · GB 92% → 97% +5GB 92% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -145 / GB +125
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -0.5
- IND 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- IND: Elo 52.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -131
- GB +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 22.0 – 19.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −15 | −143 | IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. · GB: Malik Willis, usually Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +17 Elo | IND 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 56.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 22.512th of 32 |
| 28th of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 20.610th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +1.910th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 5.588th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.23 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3720th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.