San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing22/30, 292 YDS, 3 TD
- Jordan MasonRushing19 CAR, 77 YDS
- Jauan JenningsReceiving11 REC, 175 YDS, 3 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing16/25, 221 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing24 CAR, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- Tutu AtwellReceiving4 REC, 93 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:02Joshua Karty 37 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q41:51Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)24–24
- Q46:15Joshua Karty 33 Yd Field Goal24–17
- Q411:57Jake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal24–14
- Q33:53Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)21–14
- Q37:01Jauan Jennings 31 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)21–7
- Q21:11Kyren Williams 15 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)14–7
- Q11:47Jauan Jennings 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)14–0
- Q111:12Jauan Jennings 13 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:12Jauan Jennings 13 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 0 LAR · SF 69% → 83% +14SF 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q37:01Jauan Jennings 31 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 21 – 7 LAR · SF 85% → 96% +11SF 85% → 96%+11 pts
- Q33:53Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)SF 21 – 14 LAR · LAR 3% → 14% +11LAR 3% → 14%+11 pts
- Q41:51Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)SF 24 – 24 LAR · LAR <1% → 46% +46LAR <1% → 46%+46 pts
- Q40:02Joshua Karty 37 Yd Field GoalSF 24 – 27 LAR · LAR 50% → >99% +50LAR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SF -6.5
- ML SF -270 / LAR +220
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -4
- SF 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- SF: Elo 63.6%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -228
- LAR +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 25.5 – 19.0 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +9 | SF: Brock Purdy · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +97 Elo | SF 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 60.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 69.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.9 | Points scored | 23.88th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 22.219th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+11.4 | Margin | +1.611th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.61 | Yards per play | 5.587th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3319th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–1 LAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.