San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing28/36, 319 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing20 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving8 REC, 110 YDS
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing17/26, 268 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Ty ChandlerRushing10 CAR, 82 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving4 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:12Jake Moody 31 Yd Field Goal17–23
- Q43:30Will Reichard 27 Yd Field Goal14–23
- Q410:16Jordan Mason 10 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)14–20
- Q36:49Jalen Nailor 10 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–20
- Q20:00Will Reichard 39 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q21:53George Kittle 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–10
- Q29:35Justin Jefferson 97 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)0–10
- Q14:45Will Reichard 22 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:35Justin Jefferson 97 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)SF 0 – 10 MIN · MIN 46% → 67% +21MIN 46% → 67%+21 pts
- Q21:53George Kittle 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 10 MIN · SF 29% → 51% +23SF 29% → 51%+23 pts
- Q20:00Will Reichard 39 Yd Field GoalSF 7 – 13 MIN · MIN 49% → 60% +11MIN 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q36:49Jalen Nailor 10 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)SF 7 – 20 MIN · MIN 65% → 87% +22MIN 65% → 87%+22 pts
- Q410:16Jordan Mason 10 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 14 – 20 MIN · SF 4% → 23% +19SF 4% → 23%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SF -3.5
- ML SF -215 / MIN +180
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -5
- SF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SF: Elo 66.8%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -192
- MIN +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 25.0 – 21.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1633 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | −48 | SF: Brock Purdy · MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +121 Elo | SF 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 64.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 65.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.9 | Points scored | 20.222nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 21.313th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+11.4 | Margin | −1.117th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.61 | Yards per play | 5.5210th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1713th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.