New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing13/21, 167 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing16 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- Allen LazardReceiving6 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/29, 231 YDS
- Jordan MasonRushing28 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- Jauan JenningsReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:25Allen Lazard 3 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–32
- Q44:20Jake Moody 42 Yd Field Goal13–32
- Q49:43Jake Moody 23 Yd Field Goal13–29
- Q31:39Allen Lazard 36 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)13–26
- Q33:28Jake Moody 53 Yd Field Goal7–26
- Q37:42Jordan Mason 5 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)7–23
- Q20:04Jake Moody 31 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q26:54Deebo Samuel Sr. 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)7–13
- Q214:04Jake Moody 51 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q13:51Breece Hall 3 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)7–3
- Q110:58Jake Moody 46 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:58Jake Moody 46 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 3 SF · SF 74% → 80% +6SF 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q13:51Breece Hall 3 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 7 – 3 SF · NYJ 21% → 38% +17NYJ 21% → 38%+17 pts
- Q214:04Jake Moody 51 Yd Field GoalNYJ 7 – 6 SF · SF 60% → 69% +8SF 60% → 69%+8 pts
- Q26:54Deebo Samuel Sr. 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)NYJ 7 – 13 SF · SF 67% → 84% +17SF 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q37:42Jordan Mason 5 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)NYJ 7 – 23 SF · SF 91% → 98% +7SF 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -8.5
- SF 77%
- Fair odds
- SF -288
- NYJ +288 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 17.7 – 25.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1619 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −11 | +7 | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +212 Elo | SF 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 74.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.8 | Points scored | 28.93rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 17.53rd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−5.1 | Margin | +11.43rd of 32 |
| 31st of 324.34 | Yards per play | 6.611st of 32 |
| 1st of 324.57 | Yards allowed per play | 4.987th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.