Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing19/24, 208 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing14 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving4 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing22/42, 186 YDS, 2 INT
- Devin SingletaryRushing10 CAR, 37 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving5 REC, 66 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q34:22Andrew Van Ginkel 10 Yd Interception Return (Will Reichard Kick)28–6
- Q36:08Graham Gano 50 Yd Field Goal21–6
- Q312:08Jalen Nailor 21 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)21–3
- Q26:55Justin Jefferson 3 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)14–3
- Q13:50Aaron Jones 3 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)7–3
- Q17:16Graham Gano 23 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:16Graham Gano 23 Yd Field GoalMIN 0 – 3 NYG · NYG 57% → 64% +8NYG 57% → 64%+8 pts
- Q13:50Aaron Jones 3 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 7 – 3 NYG · MIN 36% → 55% +19MIN 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q26:55Justin Jefferson 3 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 14 – 3 NYG · MIN 57% → 77% +20MIN 57% → 77%+20 pts
- Q312:08Jalen Nailor 21 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 21 – 3 NYG · MIN 82% → 94% +12MIN 82% → 94%+12 pts
- Q34:22Andrew Van Ginkel 10 Yd Interception Return (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 28 – 6 NYG · MIN 94% → >99% +5MIN 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -2
- NYG 56%
- Fair odds
- NYG -133
- MIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 19.8 – 21.9 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −59 | −16 | MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins · NYG: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +44 Elo | NYG 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 57.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.2 | Points scored | 15.630th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 23.926th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −8.330th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.52 | Yards per play | 4.5030th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6428th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.