Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing22/31, 232 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing15 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving3 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Andy DaltonPassing25/40, 220 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing18 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Diontae JohnsonReceiving7 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:14Evan McPherson 46 Yd Field Goal34–24
- Q47:42Eddy Pineiro 48 Yd Field Goal31–24
- Q30:53Diontae Johnson 21 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)31–21
- Q32:52Evan McPherson 56 Yd Field Goal31–14
- Q310:38Chase Brown 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)28–14
- Q20:01Zack Moss 1 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)21–14
- Q21:09Xavier Legette 8 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–14
- Q27:14Ja'Marr Chase 63 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–7
- Q29:31Chuba Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–7
- Q10:05Chase Brown 3 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:05Chase Brown 3 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 0 CAR · CIN 63% → 80% +17CIN 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q29:31Chuba Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CIN 7 – 7 CAR · CAR 20% → 38% +18CAR 20% → 38%+18 pts
- Q27:14Ja'Marr Chase 63 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 14 – 7 CAR · CIN 62% → 80% +19CIN 62% → 80%+19 pts
- Q21:09Xavier Legette 8 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CIN 14 – 14 CAR · CAR 19% → 39% +20CAR 19% → 39%+20 pts
- Q20:01Zack Moss 1 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 21 – 14 CAR · CIN 61% → 81% +21CIN 61% → 81%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -5.5
- ML CIN -215 / CAR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -1.5
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -185
- CAR +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 26.5 – 21.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +24 | CIN: Joe Burrow · CAR: Andy Dalton, usually Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +31 Elo | CIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 64.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.7 | Points scored | 16.326th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.7 | Points allowed | 31.732nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−4.0 | Margin | −15.332nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.80 | Yards per play | 4.6127th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6924th of 32 |
| 24th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.