Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing21/23, 254 YDS, 2 TD
- Jayden DanielsRushing12 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving4 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing29/38, 324 YDS, 3 TD
- Chase BrownRushing7 CAR, 62 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving6 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:40Zack Moss 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)38–33
- Q42:10Terry McLaurin 27 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)38–26
- Q49:42Ja'Marr Chase 31 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–26
- Q411:30Austin Seibert 42 Yd Field Goal31–20
- Q33:03Andrei Iosivas 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)28–20
- Q39:54Trent Scott 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)28–13
- Q20:22Evan McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal21–13
- Q22:04Jayden Daniels 4 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)21–10
- Q25:25Evan McPherson 28 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q211:31Austin Ekeler 24 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)14–7
- Q15:25Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)7–7
- Q111:37Ja'Marr Chase 41 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:31Austin Ekeler 24 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 14 – 7 CIN · WSH 27% → 47% +20WSH 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q22:04Jayden Daniels 4 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 21 – 10 CIN · WSH 42% → 66% +24WSH 42% → 66%+24 pts
- Q39:54Trent Scott 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 28 – 13 CIN · WSH 62% → 84% +22WSH 62% → 84%+22 pts
- Q33:03Andrei Iosivas 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)WSH 28 – 20 CIN · CIN 9% → 30% +21CIN 9% → 30%+21 pts
- Q49:42Ja'Marr Chase 31 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)WSH 31 – 26 CIN · CIN 8% → 31% +24CIN 8% → 31%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -7.5
- ML WSH +320 / CIN -400
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -6.5
- CIN 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 72.4%, market 77.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -330
- WSH +330 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 19.5 – 27.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −20 | +1 | WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +167 Elo | CIN 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 69.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 76.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3219.4 | Points scored | 21.516th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3230.5 | Points allowed | 22.621st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.1 | Margin | −1.117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.02 | Yards per play | 5.1717th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.92 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0432nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.