Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing17/24, 184 YDS
- Jayden DanielsRushing16 CAR, 88 YDS, 2 TD
- Austin EkelerReceiving4 REC, 52 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing24/30, 289 YDS, 4 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing9 CAR, 62 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving8 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:12Jayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–37
- Q43:29Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–37
- Q414:55Jalen McMillan 32 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–30
- Q31:52Jayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)14–23
- Q37:11Chris Godwin 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–23
- Q20:16Chase McLaughlin 29 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q27:17Brian Robinson Jr. 7 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)7–13
- Q210:53Mike Evans 17 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–13
- Q15:08Chase McLaughlin 34 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q111:34Chase McLaughlin 56 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:53Mike Evans 17 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)WSH 0 – 13 TB · TB 79% → 91% +12TB 79% → 91%+12 pts
- Q27:17Brian Robinson Jr. 7 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)WSH 7 – 13 TB · WSH 9% → 21% +13WSH 9% → 21%+13 pts
- Q37:11Chris Godwin 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)WSH 7 – 23 TB · TB 88% → 97% +9TB 88% → 97%+9 pts
- Q31:52Jayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)WSH 14 – 23 TB · WSH 2% → 10% +8WSH 2% → 10%+8 pts
- Q414:55Jalen McMillan 32 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)WSH 14 – 30 TB · TB 91% → 99% +8TB 91% → 99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- TB -3.5
- ML WSH +170 / TB -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -9.5
- TB 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +16.0 pts
- TB: Elo 80.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -191
- WSH +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 19.0 – 22.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −47 | — | WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +243 Elo | TB 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 77.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3219.4 | Points scored | 20.520th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3230.5 | Points allowed | 19.17th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.1 | Margin | +1.413th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.02 | Yards per play | 5.1120th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4623rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.