New York Giants at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing16/28, 178 YDS, 2 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing16 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik NabersReceiving10 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing23/29, 226 YDS
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing17 CAR, 133 YDS
- Zach ErtzReceiving4 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Austin Seibert 30 Yd Field Goal18–21
- Q47:12Austin Seibert 33 Yd Field Goal18–18
- Q411:32Wan'Dale Robinson 7 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–15
- Q32:47Austin Seibert 29 Yd Field Goal12–15
- Q37:58Austin Seibert 27 Yd Field Goal12–12
- Q20:08Malik Nabers 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–9
- Q21:50Austin Seibert 26 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q210:37Austin Seibert 45 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q11:06Devin Singletary 7 Yd Run (Jamie Gillan PAT failed)6–3
- Q15:24Austin Seibert 27 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:06Devin Singletary 7 Yd Run (Jamie Gillan PAT failed)NYG 6 – 3 WSH · NYG 39% → 56% +17NYG 39% → 56%+17 pts
- Q20:08Malik Nabers 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NYG 12 – 9 WSH · NYG 37% → 58% +21NYG 37% → 58%+21 pts
- Q411:32Wan'Dale Robinson 7 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NYG 18 – 15 WSH · NYG 32% → 65% +33NYG 32% → 65%+33 pts
- Q47:12Austin Seibert 33 Yd Field GoalNYG 18 – 18 WSH · WSH 30% → 51% +21WSH 30% → 51%+21 pts
- Q40:00Austin Seibert 30 Yd Field GoalNYG 18 – 21 WSH · WSH 51% → 100% +49WSH 51% → 100%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -1.5
- ML NYG +105 / WSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -1
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 45.9%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -115
- NYG +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.5 – 22.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1351 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −19 | −30 | NYG: Daniel Jones · WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +29 Elo | NYG 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 52.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.6 | Points scored | 19.425th of 32 |
| 26th of 3223.9 | Points allowed | 30.532nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−8.3 | Margin | −11.132nd of 32 |
| 30th of 324.50 | Yards per play | 5.0223rd of 32 |
| 28th of 325.64 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9231st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 1–731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYG 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.