Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing19/24, 180 YDS, 3 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing10 CAR, 72 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving5 REC, 64 YDS
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing42/58, 509 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing12 CAR, 61 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving12 REC, 154 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT8:45KhaDarel Hodge 45 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins30–36
- Q40:00Younghoe Koo 52 Yd Field Goal30–30
- Q410:23Chase McLaughlin 53 Yd Field Goal30–27
- Q413:18Darnell Mooney 12 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)27–27
- Q31:17Chase McLaughlin 32 Yd Field Goal27–20
- Q36:21Younghoe Koo 48 Yd Field Goal24–20
- Q21:56Sterling Shepard 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)24–17
- Q26:17Younghoe Koo 54 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q210:17Mike Evans 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–14
- Q211:58Darnell Mooney 24 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)10–14
- Q11:22Chase McLaughlin 53 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q17:36Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–7
- Q111:54Drake London 18 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:17Mike Evans 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 14 ATL · TB 33% → 54% +21TB 33% → 54%+21 pts
- Q21:56Sterling Shepard 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 24 – 17 ATL · TB 45% → 69% +23TB 45% → 69%+23 pts
- Q413:18Darnell Mooney 12 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)TB 27 – 27 ATL · ATL 19% → 53% +33ATL 19% → 53%+33 pts
- Q40:00Younghoe Koo 52 Yd Field GoalTB 30 – 30 ATL · ATL 0% → 53% +53ATL 0% → 53%+53 pts
- OT8:45KhaDarel Hodge 45 Yd pass from Kirk CousinsTB 30 – 36 ATL · ATL 52% → 85% +33ATL 52% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML TB +125 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -1.5
- ATL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 45.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- TB +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.5 – 23.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +28 | TB: Baker Mayfield · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 18.822nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.5 | Points allowed | 21.314th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+4.8 | Margin | −2.520th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.36 | Yards per play | 5.7510th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 4.887th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.