Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing18/30, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing10 CAR, 84 YDS
- Dallas GoedertReceiving7 REC, 62 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing30/47, 347 YDS, 2 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing10 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving8 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:59Chase McLaughlin 52 Yd Field Goal16–33
- Q36:49Kelee Ringo Defensive PAT Conversion16–30
- Q36:49Bucky Irving 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin PAT blocked)14–30
- Q312:28Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)14–24
- Q21:54Parris Campbell 1 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–24
- Q27:18Chase McLaughlin 21 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q214:09Baker Mayfield 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–21
- Q15:03Trey Palmer 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–14
- Q19:44Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:44Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)PHI 0 – 7 TB · TB 48% → 66% +18TB 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q15:03Trey Palmer 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)PHI 0 – 14 TB · TB 67% → 82% +15TB 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q214:09Baker Mayfield 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)PHI 0 – 21 TB · TB 84% → 93% +10TB 84% → 93%+10 pts
- Q312:28Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 24 TB · PHI 6% → 18% +12PHI 6% → 18%+12 pts
- Q36:49Bucky Irving 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin PAT blocked)PHI 14 – 30 TB · TB 85% → 95% +10TB 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -0.5
- ML PHI -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -0.5
- PHI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 47.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -108
- TB +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 22.0 – 21.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 21.315th of 32 |
| 17th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 20.715th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.3 | Margin | +0.715th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.91 | Yards per play | 5.0720th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.95 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4921st of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.