Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing12/19, 185 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Baker MayfieldRushing5 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving7 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing34/55, 307 YDS, 2 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing13 CAR, 84 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving11 REC, 119 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q30:34Baker Mayfield 11 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)20–16
- Q33:26David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)13–16
- Q311:53Jake Bates 32 Yd Field Goal13–9
- Q29:08Chris Godwin 41 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)13–6
- Q212:47Jake Bates 35 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q17:13Jake Bates 22 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q19:00Chase McLaughlin 55 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q111:31Chase McLaughlin 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:47Jake Bates 35 Yd Field GoalTB 6 – 6 DET · DET 62% → 71% +8DET 62% → 71%+8 pts
- Q29:08Chris Godwin 41 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 13 – 6 DET · TB 30% → 51% +21TB 30% → 51%+21 pts
- Q311:53Jake Bates 32 Yd Field GoalTB 13 – 9 DET · DET 41% → 52% +11DET 41% → 52%+11 pts
- Q33:26David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)TB 13 – 16 DET · DET 46% → 76% +30DET 46% → 76%+30 pts
- Q30:34Baker Mayfield 11 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 20 – 16 DET · TB 24% → 57% +32TB 24% → 57%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML TB +280 / DET -350
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- DET: Elo 63.3%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -284
- TB +284 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 22.0 – 29.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +95 Elo | DET 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 74.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.5 | Points scored | 27.15th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 23.223rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +3.98th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.903rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5126th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–2 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.