Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing25/36, 216 YDS
- Tyler BadieRushing9 CAR, 70 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving7 REC, 68 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing25/33, 163 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing9 CAR, 70 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving6 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:30Wil Lutz 43 Yd Field Goal26–7
- Q414:52Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field Goal23–7
- Q20:02Wil Lutz 38 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q21:50Chris Godwin 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–7
- Q29:25Wil Lutz 43 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q12:56Jaleel McLaughlin 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)14–0
- Q111:05Bo Nix 3 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:05Bo Nix 3 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 0 TB · DEN 31% → 48% +17DEN 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q12:56Jaleel McLaughlin 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 14 – 0 TB · DEN 51% → 70% +19DEN 51% → 70%+19 pts
- Q29:25Wil Lutz 43 Yd Field GoalDEN 17 – 0 TB · DEN 75% → 82% +7DEN 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q21:50Chris Godwin 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)DEN 17 – 7 TB · TB 14% → 31% +18TB 14% → 31%+18 pts
- Q20:02Wil Lutz 38 Yd Field GoalDEN 20 – 7 TB · DEN 70% → 79% +9DEN 70% → 79%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- TB -5.5
- ML DEN +210 / TB -250
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -8.5
- TB 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- TB: Elo 77.5%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -229
- DEN +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 17.5 – 23.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −75 | — | DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +215 Elo | TB 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 74.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 69.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.0 | Points scored | 20.520th of 32 |
| 27th of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 19.17th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−3.3 | Margin | +1.413th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.99 | Yards per play | 5.1120th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.82 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4623rd of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.