Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing18/28, 207 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing14 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving4 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing24/35, 232 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing21 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving7 REC, 65 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:10Jason Myers 59 Yd Field Goal34–14
- Q412:46Derick Hall 64 Yd Fumble Return (Jason Myers Kick)31–14
- Q33:18Kenneth Walker III 17 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)24–14
- Q37:43Drake London 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)17–14
- Q20:04DK Metcalf 31 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)17–7
- Q25:18Bijan Robinson 5 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)10–7
- Q29:52Kenneth Walker III 20 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)10–0
- Q110:05Jason Myers 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:52Kenneth Walker III 20 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 10 – 0 ATL · SEA 50% → 71% +21SEA 50% → 71%+21 pts
- Q25:18Bijan Robinson 5 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)SEA 10 – 7 ATL · ATL 27% → 49% +22ATL 27% → 49%+22 pts
- Q20:04DK Metcalf 31 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 17 – 7 ATL · SEA 53% → 76% +23SEA 53% → 76%+23 pts
- Q37:43Drake London 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)SEA 17 – 14 ATL · ATL 20% → 45% +25ATL 20% → 45%+25 pts
- Q33:18Kenneth Walker III 17 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 24 – 14 ATL · SEA 57% → 84% +26SEA 57% → 84%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML SEA +145 / ATL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 65.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -157
- SEA +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 24.5 – 27.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +40 | SEA: Geno Smith · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +110 Elo | ATL 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 24.811th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3225.0 | Points allowed | 22.515th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +2.314th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.67 | Yards per play | 6.077th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1810th of 32 |
| 15th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.