Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Skylar ThompsonPassing13/19, 107 YDS
- De'Von AchaneRushing11 CAR, 30 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving3 REC, 40 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing26/34, 289 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Zach CharbonnetRushing18 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving4 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:55Zach Charbonnet 10 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)3–24
- Q10:00DK Metcalf 71 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)3–17
- Q10:11Jason Sanders 23 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q16:44Zach Charbonnet 4 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)0–10
- Q110:49Jason Myers 56 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:49Jason Myers 56 Yd Field GoalMIA 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 65% → 72% +7SEA 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q16:44Zach Charbonnet 4 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)MIA 0 – 10 SEA · SEA 72% → 85% +13SEA 72% → 85%+13 pts
- Q10:11Jason Sanders 23 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 10 SEA · MIA 14% → 19% +5MIA 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q10:00DK Metcalf 71 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)MIA 3 – 17 SEA · SEA 81% → 91% +11SEA 81% → 91%+11 pts
- Q44:55Zach Charbonnet 10 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)MIA 3 – 24 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -4.5
- ML MIA +175 / SEA -210
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -8
- SEA 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 75.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -193
- MIA +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 18.5 – 23.0 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −131 | +7 | MIA: Skylar Thompson, usually Tua Tagovailoa · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +194 Elo | SEA 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 76.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 75.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 65.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.2 | Points scored | 21.417th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 23.625th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.2 | Margin | −2.222nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.48 | Yards per play | 5.5211th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.12 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5025th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 6th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.