Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing38/56, 395 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing12 CAR, 80 YDS, 3 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving7 REC, 104 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing18/18, 292 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing14 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving2 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:05Jared Goff Sacked by Dre'Mont Jones For 4 Yd Loss for Safety29–42
- Q45:23Amon-Ra St. Brown Pass From Jared Goff for 8 Yds Jake Bates Made Ex. Pt27–42
- Q414:48Kenneth Walker III 21 Yd Rush Jason Myers Made Ex. Pt27–35
- Q32:52Jameson Williams Pass From Jared Goff for 70 Yds Jake Bates Made Ex. Pt20–35
- Q33:03Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Rush Geno Smith Pass To Jake Bobo For Two-Point Conversion No Good Pass Incomplete20–28
- Q36:57Jared Goff Pass From Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 Yds Jake Bates Made Ex. Pt14–28
- Q39:46AJ Barner Pass From Geno Smith for 9 Yds Jason Myers Made Ex. Pt14–21
- Q25:11Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush Jake Bates Made Ex. Pt7–21
- Q210:08Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Rush Jason Myers Made Ex. Pt7–14
- Q214:58Jahmyr Gibbs 3 Yd Rush Jake Bates Made Ex. Pt0–14
- Q13:11David Montgomery 1 Yd Rush Jake Bates Made Ex. Pt0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:11David Montgomery 1 Yd Rush Jake Bates Made Ex. PtSEA 0 – 7 DET · DET 64% → 80% +16DET 64% → 80%+16 pts
- Q210:08Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Rush Jason Myers Made Ex. PtSEA 7 – 14 DET · SEA 8% → 19% +11SEA 8% → 19%+11 pts
- Q25:11Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush Jake Bates Made Ex. PtSEA 7 – 21 DET · DET 81% → 93% +12DET 81% → 93%+12 pts
- Q39:46AJ Barner Pass From Geno Smith for 9 Yds Jason Myers Made Ex. PtSEA 14 – 21 DET · SEA 5% → 17% +12SEA 5% → 17%+12 pts
- Q36:57Jared Goff Pass From Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 Yds Jake Bates Made Ex. PtSEA 14 – 28 DET · DET 83% → 95% +12DET 83% → 95%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML SEA +180 / DET -215
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- DET: Elo 61.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -189
- SEA +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 21.5 – 26.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | — | SEA: Geno Smith · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +82 Elo | DET 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 20.716th of 32 |
| 4th of 3214.3 | Points allowed | 17.78th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+10.0 | Margin | +3.014th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.55 | Yards per play | 5.6611th of 32 |
| 1st of 323.91 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0612th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.