Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing18/23, 199 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- David MontgomeryRushing23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving7 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing21/34, 207 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kyler MurrayRushing5 CAR, 45 YDS
- Marvin Harrison Jr.Receiving5 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:48Matt Prater 45 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q20:00Matt Prater 42 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q20:29Jahmyr Gibbs 21 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)20–7
- Q212:27Amon-Ra St. Brown 5 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates PAT failed)13–7
- Q15:08Marvin Harrison Jr. 10 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)7–7
- Q110:16David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:16David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)DET 7 – 0 ARI · DET 57% → 74% +17DET 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q15:08Marvin Harrison Jr. 10 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)DET 7 – 7 ARI · ARI 25% → 43% +17ARI 25% → 43%+17 pts
- Q212:27Amon-Ra St. Brown 5 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates PAT failed)DET 13 – 7 ARI · DET 57% → 73% +16DET 57% → 73%+16 pts
- Q20:29Jahmyr Gibbs 21 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 20 – 7 ARI · DET 75% → 90% +15DET 75% → 90%+15 pts
- Q20:00Matt Prater 42 Yd Field GoalDET 20 – 10 ARI · ARI 10% → 15% +5ARI 10% → 15%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DET -150 / ARI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- DET: Elo 54.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -137
- ARI +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 27.0 – 24.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +25 | DET: Jared Goff · ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +33 Elo | DET 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.1 | Points scored | 19.424th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.2 | Points allowed | 26.831st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+3.9 | Margin | −7.428th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.90 | Yards per play | 5.1618th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.51 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7029th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.