San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing18/28, 255 YDS, 3 TD
- Isaac GuerendoRushing10 CAR, 99 YDS
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving3 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing30/52, 312 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing14 CAR, 32 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler LockettReceiving4 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:17Kyle Juszczyk 6 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)36–24
- Q41:44Tyler Lockett 9 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)29–24
- Q46:20George Kittle 9 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)29–17
- Q31:24Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)23–17
- Q39:54Laviska Shenault Jr. 97 Yd Kickoff Return (Jason Myers Kick)23–10
- Q310:07George Kittle 10 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Matthew Wright Kick)23–3
- Q20:00Jason Myers 20 Yd Field Goal16–3
- Q22:33Matthew Wright 35 Yd Field Goal16–0
- Q211:47Matthew Wright 41 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q213:30Deebo Samuel Sr. 76 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Matthew Wright Kick)10–0
- Q13:58Matthew Wright 25 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:58Matthew Wright 25 Yd Field GoalSF 3 – 0 SEA · SF 62% → 70% +8SF 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q213:30Deebo Samuel Sr. 76 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Matthew Wright Kick)SF 10 – 0 SEA · SF 70% → 85% +15SF 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q310:07George Kittle 10 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Matthew Wright Kick)SF 23 – 3 SEA · SF 93% → 98% +5SF 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q31:24Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)SF 23 – 17 SEA · SEA 4% → 18% +14SEA 4% → 18%+14 pts
- Q46:20George Kittle 9 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)SF 29 – 17 SEA · SF 90% → >99% +9SF 90% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- SF -3.5
- ML SF -195 / SEA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -2.5
- SF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- SF: Elo 59.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- SF -173
- SEA +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 26.0 – 22.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +7 | SF: Brock Purdy · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +65 Elo | SF 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.2 | Points scored | 24.411th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 22.817th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+4.0 | Margin | +1.616th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.27 | Yards per play | 5.849th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 4.987th of 32 |
| 28th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–0 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.