New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Jacoby BrissettPassing19/32, 168 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing13 CAR, 43 YDS
- Antonio GibsonReceiving3 REC, 67 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing15/27, 288 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing24 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- Jauan JenningsReceiving3 REC, 88 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:58Jake Moody 41 Yd Field Goal13–30
- Q413:26Joey Slye 54 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q310:08Jordan Mason 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)10–27
- Q312:05Austin Hooper 5 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Joey Slye Kick)10–20
- Q20:00Joey Slye 63 Yd Field Goal3–20
- Q23:11George Kittle 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)0–20
- Q214:01Fred Warner 45 Yd Interception Return (Jake Moody Kick)0–13
- Q10:06Jake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q12:26Jake Moody 22 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:26Jake Moody 22 Yd Field GoalNE 0 – 3 SF · SF 79% → 85% +6SF 79% → 85%+6 pts
- Q10:06Jake Moody 26 Yd Field GoalNE 0 – 6 SF · SF 85% → 89% +5SF 85% → 89%+5 pts
- Q214:01Fred Warner 45 Yd Interception Return (Jake Moody Kick)NE 0 – 13 SF · SF 89% → 96% +7SF 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q312:05Austin Hooper 5 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Joey Slye Kick)NE 10 – 20 SF · NE 1% → 6% +5NE 1% → 6%+5 pts
- Q310:08Jordan Mason 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)NE 10 – 27 SF · SF 94% → 99% +5SF 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- SF -10.5
- ML NE +450 / SF -600
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -9
- SF 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SF: Elo 78.5%, market 82.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -462
- NE +462 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 15.5 – 26.0 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +5 | NE: Jacoby Brissett, usually Mac Jones · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +224 Elo | SF 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 77.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 82.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3213.0 | Points scored | 24.39th of 32 |
| 11th of 3219.0 | Points allowed | 23.020th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−6.0 | Margin | +1.314th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.15 | Yards per play | 6.055th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1130th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.