New England Patriots at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Jacoby BrissettPassing12/18, 98 YDS
- Antonio GibsonRushing5 CAR, 29 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving7 REC, 69 YDS
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing27/35, 281 YDS, 2 TD
- Braelon AllenRushing11 CAR, 55 YDS
- Tyler ConklinReceiving5 REC, 93 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:16Greg Zuerlein 28 Yd Field Goal3–24
- Q36:18Garrett Wilson 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)3–21
- Q23:56Joey Slye 44 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q28:32Breece Hall 1 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)0–14
- Q14:21Allen Lazard 10 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:21Allen Lazard 10 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NE 0 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 70% → 84% +14NYJ 70% → 84%+14 pts
- Q28:32Breece Hall 1 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NE 0 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 84% → 94% +10NYJ 84% → 94%+10 pts
- Q23:56Joey Slye 44 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 14 NYJ · NE 5% → 9% +3NE 5% → 9%+3 pts
- Q36:18Garrett Wilson 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NE 3 – 21 NYJ · NYJ 93% → 99% +5NYJ 93% → 99%+5 pts
- Q410:16Greg Zuerlein 28 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 24 NYJ · NYJ >99% → >99% +0NYJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -6.5
- ML NE +250 / NYJ -300
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -3.5
- NYJ 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- NYJ: Elo 62.3%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -254
- NE +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 16.5 – 23.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | −3 | NE: Jacoby Brissett, usually Mac Jones · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +87 Elo | NYJ 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 63.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 71.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3213.9 | Points scored | 15.829th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 20.912th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−7.6 | Margin | −5.127th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.60 | Yards per play | 4.3431st of 32 |
| 4th of 324.70 | Yards allowed per play | 4.571st of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NE 1–1 NYJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.