New York Jets at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing18/30, 176 YDS, 2 TD
- Breece HallRushing14 CAR, 62 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving4 REC, 57 YDS
Titans- Will LevisPassing19/28, 192 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing17 CAR, 62 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:31Braelon Allen 20 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)24–17
- Q33:22Calvin Ridley 40 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)17–17
- Q35:58Greg Zuerlein 33 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q312:08Breece Hall 26 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)14–10
- Q20:00Nick Folk 41 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q21:47Braelon Allen 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)7–7
- Q12:30Calvin Ridley 10 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:30Calvin Ridley 10 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 TEN · TEN 40% → 60% +20TEN 40% → 60%+20 pts
- Q21:47Braelon Allen 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 7 – 7 TEN · NYJ 35% → 58% +24NYJ 35% → 58%+24 pts
- Q312:08Breece Hall 26 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 14 – 10 TEN · NYJ 46% → 71% +25NYJ 46% → 71%+25 pts
- Q33:22Calvin Ridley 40 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 17 – 17 TEN · TEN 17% → 44% +27TEN 17% → 44%+27 pts
- Q44:31Braelon Allen 20 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 24 – 17 TEN · NYJ 53% → 95% +42NYJ 53% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -3.5
- ML NYJ -185 / TEN +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEN -1
- NYJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.2 pts
- NYJ: Elo 47.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -158
- TEN +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 23.0 – 19.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −8 | +10 | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN +20 Elo | TEN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 53.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 61.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.8 | Points scored | 17.927th of 32 |
| 12th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 21.616th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−5.1 | Margin | −3.626th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.34 | Yards per play | 4.9026th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2014th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.