Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing19/30, 195 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James ConnerRushing19 CAR, 86 YDS
- Michael WilsonReceiving5 REC, 78 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/35, 244 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing14 CAR, 89 YDS
- Brandon AiyukReceiving8 REC, 147 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:37Chad Ryland 35 Yd Field Goal24–23
- Q411:25Elijah Higgins 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (James Conner Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–23
- Q39:59Chad Ryland 42 Yd Field Goal13–23
- Q20:00Mitch Wishnowsky 26 Yd Field Goal10–23
- Q24:59Deommodore Lenoir 61 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Jake Moody Kick)10–20
- Q26:59Jake Moody 20 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q212:43Chad Ryland 30 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q12:20George Kittle 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–10
- Q110:25Jake Moody 28 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q113:12Kyler Murray 50 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:12Kyler Murray 50 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 7 – 0 SF · ARI 27% → 43% +16ARI 27% → 43%+16 pts
- Q12:20George Kittle 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)ARI 7 – 10 SF · SF 61% → 78% +17SF 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q24:59Deommodore Lenoir 61 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Jake Moody Kick)ARI 10 – 20 SF · SF 77% → 90% +14SF 77% → 90%+14 pts
- Q411:25Elijah Higgins 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (James Conner Run for Two-Point Conversion)ARI 21 – 23 SF · ARI 4% → 29% +24ARI 4% → 29%+24 pts
- Q41:37Chad Ryland 35 Yd Field GoalARI 24 – 23 SF · ARI 19% → 61% +42ARI 19% → 61%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- SF -7.5
- ML ARI +260 / SF -320
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -8.5
- SF 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- SF: Elo 77.1%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -279
- ARI +279 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 20.5 – 28.0 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +24 | +5 | ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +211 Elo | SF 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 76.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 73.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 25.89th of 32 |
| 28th of 3226.5 | Points allowed | 20.510th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.5 | Margin | +5.38th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.72 | Yards per play | 6.313rd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.79 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3716th of 32 |
| 27th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–2 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.