Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing26/30, 233 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing21 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- Olamide ZaccheausReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing16/22, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- James ConnerRushing18 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Marvin Harrison Jr.Receiving5 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:30Jeremy McNichols 7 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)42–14
- Q48:30Terry McLaurin 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Jayden Daniels Pass to Zach Ertz for Two-Point Conversion)35–14
- Q30:11James Conner 6 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)27–14
- Q35:16Austin Seibert 38 Yd Field Goal27–7
- Q313:52Jayden Daniels 9 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)24–7
- Q20:00Austin Seibert 45 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q210:18Jeremy McNichols 27 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)14–7
- Q15:13Brian Robinson Jr. 6 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)7–7
- Q19:54Marvin Harrison Jr. 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:54Marvin Harrison Jr. 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)WSH 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 61% → 77% +16ARI 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q15:13Brian Robinson Jr. 6 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 7 – 7 ARI · WSH 23% → 40% +17WSH 23% → 40%+17 pts
- Q210:18Jeremy McNichols 27 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 14 – 7 ARI · WSH 41% → 62% +21WSH 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q20:00Austin Seibert 45 Yd Field GoalWSH 17 – 7 ARI · WSH 66% → 76% +9WSH 66% → 76%+9 pts
- Q313:52Jayden Daniels 9 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 24 – 7 ARI · WSH 76% → 91% +15WSH 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -3.5
- ML WSH +145 / ARI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -4.5
- ARI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 65.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- ARI -157
- WSH +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 22.5 – 26.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −2 | +25 | WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell · ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +111 Elo | ARI 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 64.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3226.3 | Points scored | 27.34th of 32 |
| 31st of 3229.3 | Points allowed | 21.317th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.0 | Margin | +6.06th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.93 | Yards per play | 5.928th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.58 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4519th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.