New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing12/24, 156 YDS
- Alvin KamaraRushing10 CAR, 67 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving8 REC, 107 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing20/32, 279 YDS, 2 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing17 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving6 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:22Ladd McConkey 9 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)8–26
- Q411:55Cameron Dicker 29 Yd Field Goal8–19
- Q31:05Blake Grupe 43 Yd Field Goal8–16
- Q38:48Ladd McConkey 60 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)5–16
- Q20:05Blake Grupe 40 Yd Field Goal5–9
- Q21:37J.K. Dobbins 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker PAT failed)2–9
- Q214:55Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field Goal2–3
- Q110:20Taysom Hill Safety2–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:55Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field GoalNO 2 – 3 LAC · LAC 67% → 75% +7LAC 67% → 75%+7 pts
- Q21:37J.K. Dobbins 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker PAT failed)NO 2 – 9 LAC · LAC 72% → 86% +15LAC 72% → 86%+15 pts
- Q20:05Blake Grupe 40 Yd Field GoalNO 5 – 9 LAC · NO 13% → 20% +7NO 13% → 20%+7 pts
- Q38:48Ladd McConkey 60 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)NO 5 – 16 LAC · LAC 80% → 94% +14LAC 80% → 94%+14 pts
- Q31:05Blake Grupe 43 Yd Field GoalNO 8 – 16 LAC · NO 5% → 9% +5NO 5% → 9%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML NO +290 / LAC -380
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 71.6%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -304
- NO +304 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 17.0 – 24.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −110 | +9 | NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +161 Elo | LAC 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 72.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 75.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 17.726th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.7 | Points allowed | 13.81st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +3.812th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.14 | Yards per play | 5.0622nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.12 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2710th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.