Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing27/39, 349 YDS
- J.K. DobbinsRushing14 CAR, 40 YDS
- Will DisslyReceiving8 REC, 81 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing14/26, 145 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James ConnerRushing19 CAR, 101 YDS
- James ConnerReceiving2 REC, 51 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Chad Ryland 32 Yd Field Goal15–17
- Q41:54Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field Goal15–14
- Q412:09Cameron Dicker 47 Yd Field Goal12–14
- Q414:14Kyler Murray 44 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)9–14
- Q30:40Cameron Dicker 28 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 50 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q25:40Greg Dortch 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)3–7
- Q211:59Cameron Dicker 59 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:40Greg Dortch 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)LAC 3 – 7 ARI · ARI 38% → 61% +22ARI 38% → 61%+22 pts
- Q414:14Kyler Murray 44 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)LAC 9 – 14 ARI · ARI 39% → 73% +34ARI 39% → 73%+34 pts
- Q412:09Cameron Dicker 47 Yd Field GoalLAC 12 – 14 ARI · LAC 25% → 40% +15LAC 25% → 40%+15 pts
- Q41:54Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field GoalLAC 15 – 14 ARI · LAC 24% → 64% +40LAC 24% → 64%+40 pts
- Q40:00Chad Ryland 32 Yd Field GoalLAC 15 – 17 ARI · ARI 0% → 100% +100ARI 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML LAC -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 56.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 23.0 – 21.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +27 | LAC: Justin Herbert · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +48 Elo | LAC 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 52.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.2 | Points scored | 22.218th of 32 |
| 1st of 3213.2 | Points allowed | 27.229th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+5.0 | Margin | −5.022nd of 32 |
| 25th of 324.81 | Yards per play | 5.789th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.15 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9329th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.