Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing22/32, 214 YDS, 1 TD
- Trey BensonRushing5 CAR, 26 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving8 REC, 96 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing22/32, 258 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing18 CAR, 62 YDS
- Christian WatsonReceiving3 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:28Brayden Narveson 41 Yd Field Goal13–34
- Q33:48Romeo Doubs 20 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)13–31
- Q39:03Chad Ryland 40 Yd Field Goal13–24
- Q20:04Chad Ryland 38 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q21:56Michael Wilson 18 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)7–24
- Q24:32Christian Watson 44 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–24
- Q26:32Brayden Narveson 36 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q214:55Romeo Doubs 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–14
- Q18:55Jayden Reed 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:55Jayden Reed 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)ARI 0 – 7 GB · GB 70% → 84% +14GB 70% → 84%+14 pts
- Q214:55Romeo Doubs 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)ARI 0 – 14 GB · GB 84% → 93% +9GB 84% → 93%+9 pts
- Q24:32Christian Watson 44 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)ARI 0 – 24 GB · GB 97% → >99% +3GB 97% → >99%+3 pts
- Q39:03Chad Ryland 40 Yd Field GoalARI 13 – 24 GB · ARI 4% → 7% +3ARI 4% → 7%+3 pts
- Q33:48Romeo Doubs 20 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)ARI 13 – 31 GB · GB 94% → >99% +5GB 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- GB -6.5
- ML ARI +230 / GB -280
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -8
- GB 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- GB: Elo 76.3%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- GB -248
- ARI +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 20.0 – 26.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | +10 | ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +203 Elo | GB 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 73.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 71.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 25.69th of 32 |
| 27th of 3225.8 | Points allowed | 21.613th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.8 | Margin | +4.012th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.83 | Yards per play | 6.234th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4015th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.