Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing15/26, 224 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing19 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Tucker KraftReceiving4 REC, 88 YDS, 2 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing29/45, 260 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing22 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- Jordan WhittingtonReceiving7 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:30Demarcus Robinson 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–19
- Q33:55Tucker Kraft 7 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)24–13
- Q311:15Tucker Kraft 66 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)17–13
- Q20:00Brayden Narveson 46 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q22:02Jaylen McCollough 4 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty PAT blocked)7–13
- Q29:47Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)7–7
- Q16:45Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:45Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)GB 7 – 0 LAR · GB 57% → 74% +17GB 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q29:47Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)GB 7 – 7 LAR · LAR 24% → 44% +20LAR 24% → 44%+20 pts
- Q22:02Jaylen McCollough 4 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty PAT blocked)GB 7 – 13 LAR · LAR 45% → 65% +20LAR 45% → 65%+20 pts
- Q311:15Tucker Kraft 66 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)GB 17 – 13 LAR · GB 44% → 69% +26GB 44% → 69%+26 pts
- Q33:55Tucker Kraft 7 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)GB 24 – 13 LAR · GB 71% → 91% +20GB 71% → 91%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- GB -2.5
- ML GB -145 / LAR +125
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -3.5
- GB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- GB: Elo 61.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- GB -135
- LAR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 26.0 – 23.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +8 | GB: Jordan Love · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +84 Elo | GB 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 60.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 57.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.0 | Points scored | 18.824th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 28.830th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+3.8 | Margin | −10.030th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.36 | Yards per play | 5.2320th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3732nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GB 1–0 LAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.