Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing20/28, 275 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing22 CAR, 93 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Jordan LovePassing32/54, 389 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing9 CAR, 51 YDS
- Jayden ReedReceiving7 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:56Dontayvion Wicks 17 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)31–29
- Q46:50Will Reichard 33 Yd Field Goal31–22
- Q410:16Tucker Kraft 13 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Pass to Tucker Kraft for Two-Point Conversion)28–22
- Q411:38Dontayvion Wicks 6 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)28–14
- Q20:15Jayden Reed 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)28–7
- Q25:28Justin Jefferson 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)28–0
- Q211:50Jordan Addison 7 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)21–0
- Q11:37Josh Oliver 2 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)14–0
- Q111:53Jordan Addison 29 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:53Jordan Addison 29 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 7 – 0 GB · MIN 43% → 61% +18MIN 43% → 61%+18 pts
- Q11:37Josh Oliver 2 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 14 – 0 GB · MIN 63% → 80% +17MIN 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q211:50Jordan Addison 7 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 21 – 0 GB · MIN 82% → 92% +11MIN 82% → 92%+11 pts
- Q410:16Tucker Kraft 13 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Pass to Tucker Kraft for Two-Point Conversion)MIN 28 – 22 GB · GB 2% → 20% +18GB 2% → 20%+18 pts
- Q40:56Dontayvion Wicks 17 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)MIN 31 – 29 GB · GB <1% → 16% +16GB <1% → 16%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- GB -2.5
- ML MIN +125 / GB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -2.5
- GB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- GB: Elo 58.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- GB -134
- MIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.0 – 23.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1608 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −29 | +11 | MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +61 Elo | GB 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 60.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 57.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.3 | Points scored | 25.06th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3210.0 | Points allowed | 19.312th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+18.3 | Margin | +5.78th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.99 | Yards per play | 6.392nd of 32 |
| 6th of 324.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4720th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 GB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.