Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing20/31, 215 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Cam AkersRushing9 CAR, 21 YDS
- Stefon DiggsReceiving10 REC, 94 YDS
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing17/28, 181 YDS, 4 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing19 CAR, 102 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:43Will Reichard 58 Yd Field Goal7–34
- Q410:14Johnny Mundt 2 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–31
- Q414:53Will Reichard 35 Yd Field Goal7–24
- Q33:56Cam Akers 8 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–21
- Q310:22Jalen Nailor 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)0–21
- Q11:08Aaron Jones 8 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)0–14
- Q112:03Justin Jefferson 6 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:03Justin Jefferson 6 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)HOU 0 – 7 MIN · MIN 48% → 65% +18MIN 48% → 65%+18 pts
- Q11:08Aaron Jones 8 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)HOU 0 – 14 MIN · MIN 68% → 83% +16MIN 68% → 83%+16 pts
- Q310:22Jalen Nailor 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)HOU 0 – 21 MIN · MIN 91% → 98% +7MIN 91% → 98%+7 pts
- Q33:56Cam Akers 8 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 21 MIN · HOU 1% → 6% +5HOU 1% → 6%+5 pts
- Q414:53Will Reichard 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 7 – 24 MIN · MIN 96% → 98% +2MIN 96% → 98%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2
- ML HOU -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 24.3 – 22.3 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | −37 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 20.222nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 21.313th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −1.117th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 5.5210th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1713th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.